Less than four weeks ago, there was reason to believe that the Middle East – by its own standards – was on a more stable path than at any time for a number of years.
The United States, with its attention turned towards events in Ukraine and its increasingly tense relationship with China, was downscaling its priorities in the region. Washington had been encouraging the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia; the Saudis and the UAE were on better terms; whilst Qatar and Turkey appeared to be mending fences.
But the Palestinian question hadn’t gone away. The repatriation of settlements was unresolved and the Government in Gaza appeared powerless.
An uneasy peace prevailed – until the Hamas attack on Israel on 7th October changed everything.
In this insightful Foreign Affairs podcast, Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the Brookings Institute and Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, discuss the context of international politics in the months leading up to the attack, why Hamas chose that date to launch their strike and what the predictable Israeli response is likely to lead to.
What are the chances of the conflict escalating beyond a war between Israel and Gaza?
They discuss the role that Iran has to play and its relationship with Hamas and, especially, Hezbollah. Until now, Hezbollah’s response has stayed relatively muted but one wrong move could change all that.
With Gaza under fierce Israeli attack, with living conditions deteriorating by the hour, there currently seems little hope of a ceasefire, let alone a diplomatic solution. How can the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza be answered? Behind the scenes, diplomacy is trying to identify a path forward – but everything is very uncertain, given Egypt and Jordan aren’t prepared to take refugees. And is the temporary removal of the population either feasible or desirable?
Meanwhile, there also remains a political vacuum and growing unrest amongst Palestinians in the West Bank, in what appears to be a blatant disregard by the Israeli authorities to the activities of settlers.
If the Hamas leadership is removed over many weeks and months, what comes next and who manages Gaza in the longer term? As Maloney and Lynch attest, the Middle East is a story of big challenges but no good options.
They discuss the position that Arab leaders have and are likely to take as events unfold – it isn’t necessarily one that is sympathetic to the Palestinians.
And what of the future? Can the United States do more to create a sustainable path towards a de-escalation of hostilities and old rivalries? One thing seems certain – the future has to be one that doesn’t leave the Palestinians behind.
This illuminating podcast covers it all.
