Climate change is creating serious risks to the ecosystems of the Mediterranean coastline, along with key economic sectors like summer beach tourism, agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries, according to a special report by high-level international scientists.
The Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECC) have concluded that present initiatives to tackle environmental problems in coastal areas and to adapt to climate change are insufficient to attain the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs are designed to ensure the well-being of people and the sustainability of resources.
The network’s hard-hitting report ‘Climate and Environmental Coastal Risks in the Mediterranean’ identifies the Sea’s extensive coastal zone as being susceptible to multiple drivers of change, especially climate, pollution, biologic and socio-economic processes.
Overall, the region is “characterised by rapid, spatially diverse and geographically unbalanced socioeconomic development, primarily as a result of demographic trends, human settlement patterns and on-going wars and armed conflicts,” the report says.
It predicts that the overall coastal population of the Mediterranean will grow faster than the inland population, with the largest increases expected in the Mediterranean Middle Eastern and Maghreb countries.
The overall result will be “increased exposure of people and assets to coastal hazards.”
Climate change has affected both the terrestrial and marine components of the Mediterranean coastal zone. “Projections show an increase in surface air temperatures, frequency and intensity of hot extremes, sea level, evapotranspiration and decreased precipitation, depending on the level of future greenhouse gas emissions,” the report notes.
Impact of rising sea levels
Accelerated rises in sea levels are expected to continue during the coming decades and centuries, increasing the risks of coastal floods, permanent inundation of some areas and coastal erosion, which will affect ecosystems and the efficiency of present coastal defences.
Airports, transport networks, ports and cultural heritage sites are all at risk, according to the scientists, with current protection measures against coastal flooding and erosion “generally inadequate” based upon probable rises in sea levels.
Flash floods would also be more likely in some coastal areas, due to climate change and growing urbanisation.
Greater water scarcity is also forecast in the future. This is because of the region becoming drier and the salinisation of coastal aquifers at a time when there will be increasing demand from a growing population, irrigation, tourist use, industry and the energy sector.
The report recognised that adaptation to decreasing water availability has taken place across many sub-regions of the Mediterranean coastline. This has been achieved by increasing the water supply, improving water quality, supporting measures and governance and even reducing water demand.
The continued and increasing occurrence of mass mortalities in Mediterranean coastal waters has also been linked to marine heat waves, MedECC notes.
The authors also touched on the significant decline in coastal wetlands since the beginning of the 20th century, a phenomenon which is expected to continue in the future.
The extent of decline will depend on the efficiency of conservation measures in coastal ecosystems to mitigate against climate change. “An increasing number of hard limits will be reached for every increment of global warming,” they warn.
Man-made activities causing pollution
Of growing concern, Mediterranean coastal areas continue to be polluted by man-made activities linked industry, agriculture, urbanisation and tourism.
This has led to a surge in micro- and macro-plastics, metals, persistent organic pollutants and emerging pollutants. Meanwhile, the additional factor of eutrophication from land-based nutrient inputs has also had a detrimental impact on ecological systems, human health and economic sectors, such as aquaculture, fishing and coastal tourism.
The level of coastal pollution in future will depend on regulations, dependency, the amount of production, treatment and socioeconomic changes, MedECC asserts.
The report concurs that a prophylactic approach to controlling pollution at source is more effective than treating it after the event. It warns, however, that to date there has been no implementation of pollution-tackling measures around the Mediterranean basin. Both technical and decision-making challenges remain unresolved, the scientists point out.
The Mediterranean has also become increasingly colonised by non-indigenous tropical species, with observable changes in their distribution and population.
The report highlights the need for scientists to engage with policymakers, stakeholders and citizens, in order to break down barriers to risk mitigation. This includes overcoming a lack of understanding and trust to improve the planning process. “Turning stakeholders into partners significantly increases the potential of successfully implementing solutions and adaptation measures,” the MedECC team suggests.
Barriers to the implementation of sustainable development pathways
The scientists warn that SDGs won’t be met and climate change risks will be exacerbated unless “transformative actions across all sectors, systems and scales,” are undertaken. They cite social-economic and gender-based inequalities and lack of access to basic services as being further barriers to the implementation of sustainable development pathways.
Successfully aligning with these pathways will require exposing the various vulnerabilities related to human activities and the impact of climate change, alongside an assessment of options that can reduce risks amongst affected communities and ecosystems.
Striking a note of optimism, the MedECC scientists believe that “a mix of legal, policy and economic instruments, and behavioural nudges are available at local, national and regional level to promote effective and resilient development pathways in the Mediterranean coastal zone.”
